A Madeira Wine Premiumisation Index

Defining Premiumisation

Premiumisation in the alcoholic beverages’ world describes a long‑term shift where consumers buy fewer bottles overall but spend more per bottle, (less is more) seeking higher quality, authenticity, and emotional value. It’s one of the most important structural trends in global wine markets — and it’s very visible in fortified categories like Madeira, Port, and Sherry.

Premiumisation is centred around higher price points – a value driven sales proposition emphasising higher quality, stronger provenance or storytelling having, limited or artisanal production characteristics. These are communicated by rarity (reserve features), often single vineyard production with clear terroir identity, with traditional production methods producing older wines with age statements.

Successful premiumisation strategies seem to rest on heritage, craftsmanship and sustainability, told as brand stories.

To build the premiumisation index, it was necessary to first build a Commercial Importance index (CII))

A Commercial Importance index for Madeira wine

A CII is a composite measure that estimates how strategically important a wine style or grape variety is in the overall Madeira wine category. It uses Volume, market relevance and a weighting multiplier.

To do this, firstly a “varietal /category multiplier” model was developed and is used below as a start point to the CII of Madeira wine production. While the volume decreases of young low price current and modified wines are shown in previous posts, the volumes of production, (80% or so of Madeira wine production are these low value wines) which means they are hugely commercially important to the Madeira wine industry as the table illustrates.

Arriving at the multiplier is somewhat subjective and is based on the author’s view. This multiplier is further refined and modelled in the creation of the Madeira wine premiumisation index.

Commercial importance index (CII)

1. Current (Auth)
Base Value: 16,483,158
Multiplier: 1.0
CII: 16,483,158

2. Modified
Base Value: 5,715,860
Multiplier: 1.0
CII: 5,715,860

3. 5 years (Auth)
Base Value: 1,751,253
Multiplier: 1.5
CII: 2,626,879

4. Malvasia
Base Value: 446,707
Multiplier: 3.0
CII: 1,340,121

5. Sercial
Base Value: 248,287
Multiplier: 3.0
CII: 744,861

6. Verdelho
Base Value: 248,265
Multiplier: 3.0
CII: 744,795

7. Boal
Base Value: 248,153
Multiplier: 3.0
CII: 744,459

8. Tinta Negra
Base Value: 267,046
Multiplier: 1.5
CII: 400,569

9. Colheita
Base Value: 46,363
Multiplier: 3.0
CII: 139,089

10. Terrantez
Base Value: 15,938
Multiplier: 5.0
CII: 79,690

11. Bastardo
Base Value: 4,013
Multiplier: 5.0
CII: 20,065

12. Frasqueira
Base Value: 633
Multiplier: 5.0
CII: 3,165

13. 50 years
Base Value: 623
Multiplier: 5.0
CII: 3,115

14. +50 years
Base Value: 320
Multiplier: 5.0
CII: 1,600

15. 30 years
Base Value: 45
Multiplier: 4.5
CII: 203

This high-volume low value segment of fortified wines is common with both Sherry and Port production and commercialisation. Large amounts of Port are sold as young Tawny or Ruby Port even though Port leads in price per litre as noted in an earlier post.

The weighting given to the Tinta Negra grape could be considered too low, but given the volatility in commercialisation numbers of Canteiro aged Tinta Negra (as seen in an earlier post), with some years no Canteiro aged Tinta Negra wines being commercialised, it indicates a degree of uncertainty amongst producers, despite its overall solid performance. Put simply we conclude that Tinta Negra is earlier on the journey to premiumisation than the other noble grape wines, hence the multiplier applied.

Of the noble grapes (usurpingly) Malvasia is commercially the most important. Not quite double any of the other 3 core 4 grapes. Boal, Sercial and Verdelho being remarkably similar in our index.

The importance of Colheita wines is shown, again this is a relatively new innovation in Madeira wine denominations, but one that appears to have great potential and will prove in my opinion very important in accelerating the premiumisation trajectory of Madeira wine.

The commercial importance of Estufagem wines is highlighted in this CII with high volume young wines dominating the index, if we include wines for the food industry this segment represents 75-85% of the Madeira wines sold.

A comparison with Scoth whisky

Looking at the Scotch whisky industry for comparison, low value blends represent in 2024 85% of the volume sold, but only 67% of the value sold. The premium malts represent 15% of the volume and 33% of the value.

If we model the Madeira wine industry similarly to the Scotch whisky industry, the equivalent breakdown is very interesting.

Assuming wines are wholesaled by producers as follows:

Estufagem
Volume Share (2024 est.): 85–90%
Value Share (2024 est.): 40–55%
Wholesale Price: €6–€10/L

Canteiro
Volume Share (2024 est.): 10–15%
Value Share (2024 est.): 45–60%
Wholesale Price: €20–€40/L (Premium wines are often €50–€100+/L, with ultra-premium wines commanding even higher prices.)

This is a remarkable finding, in that10 to 15 percent of Madeira wine production can represent possible as much as 60 percent of the value of Madeira wine commercialised. I feel this finding at 60% should be treated with some caution, but it is a very strong indicator to the importance of Canteiro wine production.

Research also indicates that producers are indeed increasing the mix of their inventories of maturing wines in favour of more wine being subjected to Canteiro maturation and importantly wines are spending longer periods of time being aged to rebuild depleted Frasqueira stocks and fully take advantage of the flexibility of Colheita bottlings.

Madeira Premiumisation index. – lessons from Scotch Whisky

Looking at the table above, it would appear that the premium sector of Madeira wine at 45-60% value share is ahead of the Scotch malt whisky segment. Interesting.

For completeness, in 2019 (pre pandemic) Scotch whisky exports were growing in both the categories (Malt and Blend) with value growth in Malt of 14.4% and volume growth of 8.1%. In the blended category value grew by 7.8% and volume by 0.9%. Premiumisation in both the malt and blend categories.

Varietal prestige multiplier

I next developed a “varietal prestige multiplier” model and this forms the basis of the Madeira Premiumisation index.

Varietal Prestige weight multiplier table

Mapping the Prestige weight to the commercialisation category recognised by IVBAM and the volume produced per category we have a Premiumisation Index as below:

Top 30 Madeira Wines — Premiumisation Index

1. Malvasia
Method: Canteiro
Style: 5 years
Premiumisation Index: 45,539.16

2. Malvasia
Method: Canteiro
Style: 10 years
Premiumisation Index: 45,075.75

3. Boal
Method: Canteiro
Style: 10 years
Premiumisation Index: 37,077.45

4. Sercial
Method: Canteiro
Style: 10 years
Premiumisation Index: 32,991.60

5. Boal
Method: Canteiro
Style: 5 years
Premiumisation Index: 30,351.00

6. Malvasia
Method: Canteiro
Style: Colheita
Premiumisation Index: 29,374.45

7. Verdelho
Method: Canteiro
Style: 10 years
Premiumisation Index: 28,746.15

8. Tinta Negra
Method: Canteiro
Style: Colheita
Premiumisation Index: 20,008.80

9. Malvasia
Method: Canteiro
Style: 15 years
Premiumisation Index: 19,590.20

10. Boal
Method: Canteiro
Style: Frasqueira
Premiumisation Index: 19,210.00

11. Sercial
Method: Canteiro
Style: 5 years
Premiumisation Index: 19,093.68

12. Verdelho
Method: Canteiro
Style: 5 years
Premiumisation Index: 17,842.20

13. Boal
Method: Canteiro
Style: Colheita
Premiumisation Index: 17,253.25

14. Tinta Negra
Method: Canteiro
Style: 5 years
Premiumisation Index: 14,910.84

15. Verdelho
Method: Canteiro
Style: Frasqueira
Premiumisation Index: 14,759.00

16. Sercial
Method: Canteiro
Style: Frasqueira
Premiumisation Index: 12,593.50

17. Malvasia
Method: Canteiro
Style: Frasqueira
Premiumisation Index: 10,571.00

18. Verdelho
Method: Canteiro
Style: Colheita
Premiumisation Index: 9,192.40

19. Terrantez
Method: Canteiro
Style: Frasqueira
Premiumisation Index: 8,918.00

20. Boal
Method: Canteiro
Style: 15 years
Premiumisation Index: 7,280.00

21. Sercial
Method: Canteiro
Style: Colheita
Premiumisation Index: 6,626.55

22. Verdelho
Method: Canteiro
Style: 15 years
Premiumisation Index: 4,509.60

23. Tinta Negra
Method: Canteiro
Style: 10 years
Premiumisation Index: 4,344.60

24. Terrantez
Method: Canteiro
Style: 20 years
Premiumisation Index: 4,047.05

25. Tinta Negra
Method: Canteiro
Style: Frasqueira
Premiumisation Index: 3,928.50

26. Sercial
Method: Canteiro
Style: 15 years
Premiumisation Index: 3,844.20

27. Malvasia
Method: Canteiro
Style: 20 years
Premiumisation Index: 3,189.00

28. Verdelho
Method: Canteiro
Style: 20 years
Premiumisation Index: 1,423.00

29. Tinta Negra
Method: Canteiro
Style: 20 years
Premiumisation Index: 890.00

30. Bastardo
Method: Canteiro
Style: 10 years
Premiumisation Index: 737.45

Of the 30 wines listed the varietals are:

Malvasia is the dominant wine in the index. This should be no surprise, raw production figures for the core 4 wines 2015 -2024 show Malvasia volumes as 900,564 litres (37.6%), followed by Boal volumes of 628,033 litres (26.2%), then Sercial with 443,303 Litres (18.5%) and Verdelho with 425,289 litres (17.7%).

Sweeter wines are Madeira wine maker’s sweet spot (pun intended). In Estufagem production a broadly similar pattern is clear in volume terms of sweet wines. Sweet wines 35.5%, Medium sweet wines 25%. Medium dry wines at 26.75% and dry wines at 12.69% are a different pattern to the prestige index. Is Tinta Negra less able to produce quality drier styles of Madeira? It looks that way.

Prestige wine list entries by bottling type

Before diving deeper into the categories and understanding what is happening as Madeira wine makers premiumize their production it is worth saying that Frasqueira Madeira wines have always been a category that should be viewed as ultra -premium or even museum grade. They have small volumes and their availability is patchy as releases are small. However, they play a hugely important role in giving Madeira wines their prestige. Non the less they have declined by -2.86% CAGR 2015-2024, this is likely to be due to a shortage of stocks to release. Increasingly Colheita wines will come to fill this gap due to their age and year provenance.

This decline and the very low volumes sold means we should not over estimate their value. They remain aspirational and largely for collectors and connoisseurs.

The analysis undertaken reflects the importance of younger wines (the 5 years to 10 years old Canteiro aged category) in the long-term prosperity of Madeira wine making.

Recruiter wines?  

It is the 5 year old wines that are positioned as recruiter wines attracting consumers to explore Madeira wines, giving enough depth of taste from the Canteiro process to enthral.

This category of Madeira wine grew by 2.17% CAGR between 2015 and 2024, totalling 906,167 litres.

The Scotch whisky developed a very effective range of recruiter malts. Based on detailed market research certain malts were positioned in the market deliberately to meet the taste aspirations that the market research uncovered. Diageo developed a range of 3 malts all bearing The Singleton sobriquet side stepping long and complex names but offering a reassuring name thus making the single malt approachable. The taste aspiration of the drinker was built around the whisky being smooth and easy to drink. The range has been very successful.

One Issue with 5 years old wines are that it is difficult to produce high quality Sercial at 5 years old. Infact more 10 year old Sercial wines are commercialised than 5 years old wines by some 42%. Though both ages are enjoying growth of 1.84% CAGR and 6.84% CAGR respectively.

Malvasia volumes at 5 and 10 years old are comparable growing at 0.46% CAGR and 1.17% GAGR. Both are just in positive territory and have very similar volumes.

Boal at 10 years old grew by 3.66% CAGR and at 5 years old declines by 3.20% CAGR, with 10 years old volumes exceeding 5 years old volume by 18%.

Commercialised volumes of 5 years old Verdelho declined by 2.07% CAGR. 10 years old wine volumes increased by 8.25% with 10 years old wines volume exceeding 5 years old wines by 38%.

This data tells us that Premiumisation of Madeira wine is really taking place with 10 years old wines growing strongly, also notable is the move towards drier styles of wines which is a hugely important finding and key to the future development of Madeira wines as its reputation for drier wines grows and it is no longer just thought of as a sweet wine.

It is therefore questionable as to how effective 5 years old Madeira wines are as recruiter wines. It would appear visitors are trying sweet 5 year old wines but overall 10 year old wines offer a stronger premiumisation proposition.

A Prestige backbone?

Yes, Madeira wine Prestige Backbone is made up of 10 years old wines. Why? as discussed above 10 years old wines are growing in volumes commercialised quite strongly, while 5 years old wines are broadly static and as we shall go onto see, Tinta Negra at 10 years of age is also growing in importance. And, quite crucially there is a large drop in commercialisation volumes of 15 years old wines.

10 year old Madeira wines play a key part in the premiumisation of Madeira wines, this is where the true depth and quality of the wines are exhibited. The additional 5 years of Canteiro aging produces a Madeira wine that exhibits flavours and viscosity and this is reflected in the growing sales of these wines which are still sold at an attractive price point in comparison to older bottlings.

It is however, important to understand where this growth has emerged from. Overall, 10 years old Madeira volumes have grown by 3.77% CAGR (2015-2024). Within that, Tinta Negra records 18.70% growth. The Tinta Negra bottlings in question are appearing to be generally sweet wines. Is this just moving volumes from Malvasia which had the slowest growth?

Boal 10 year old has grown by 3.66% CAGR, Malvasia by 1.17% CAGR, Sercial by 6.84% CAGR and Verdelho by 8.25% CAGR. These figures clearly identify the trend towards drier styles of wine as a consumer preference. This is a global trend and Dry Sherry is enjoying growth in this segment as are table wines where the preference is towards lighter, fresher and drier wines.

Tinta Negra is becoming a prestige wine

Tinta Negra will come to play an increasingly important role and this research forecasts that it will grow steadily as a premium expression of Madeira wine through to 2030. As stocks increase Tinta Negra releases at greater ages will become more common.

IVBAM in 2015 allowed Tinta Negra as a type of grape to be shown on the label and that Colheita and Frasquira bottles of Tinta Negra could be produced. They are now being produced.

Tinta Negra Volumes bounced up and down with 5 years old wines enjoying strong growth, though growth of 10 years old wines was disappointing at only 1.51% CAGR. Overall, across all ages and categories Canteiro aged Tinta Negra grew by 14.53%. The progress of Tinta Negra as a prestige wine is still volatile, but 2022-23 has seen some stabilisation and the emergence of the Tinta Negra Colheita with some success.

The question remains is Tinta Negra growing the category or is it taking market share from Malvasia and Boal in particular? At present it is unclear quite what will happen.

15 years old premium madeira wines.

Across the category, 15 years old wines are just steady in CAGR terms, Boal performing well at 7.78% CAGR, Malvasia losing volume at -0.13% CAGR, Sercial at -3.06% CAGR and Verdelho positive at 1.95% CAGR.

The real story is the drop in volumes commercialised in comparison to 10 years old wines. There is 62% less Boal commercialised at 15 yeas old than at 10 years old. Overall, the core 4 noble grapes wines see declines in commercialised volumes between 60% and 80% It can be argued that the 15 years old category is commercially inefficient and producers are switching wines to Colheita or Frasquira wines to rebuild stocks.

Our guestimate is 30–45% of the “missing” 15‑years old volume reappears as Colheita or Frasqueira. The rest is bottled early as 10‑year or held longer for 20‑years old or Frasqueira. This creates a structural “valley” at 15 years, followed by a rebound in Colheita and Frasqueira volumes. The pattern is consistent across Boal, Sercial, Malvasia, and Verdelho.

Tinta Negra at 15 years old has very low volumes and declined by -21.43% GAGR and looks to be a dying category.

The aspirational wine: Colheita:

With Colheita wines being able to provide a defined calendar year of production (Single Harvest), not just a duration of aging. Colheita plays an important part in Madeira wine’s premiumisation index.

CAGR 2015-2024 has been disappointing at 1.51%, but like Frasquira, the COVID pandemic hit this category particularly hard as much is purchased by visitors to the island. However, post pandemic Colheita wines are recovering and growing strongly driven by Tinta Negra Colheita releases which grew by 19.44% CAGR. The exceptional growth of Sercial as a Colheita wine is also very impressive at 18.03% CAGR – indicating the strong global trend towards dry wines. Verdelho grew by 6.01% CAGR (with volumes at one third of Malvasia). Malvasia grew by 0.68% CAGR (though with a volume 4 times greater than Sercial) and Boal by 2.54% CAGR with a volume twice that of Verdelho.

Colheita wines across all varieties show some of the strongest Prestige Index growth. They offer a faster time‑to‑market than Frasqueira a higher prestige than 5–10 year categories and strong consumer recognition with a given year “single harvest” not an age statement. This Colheita wine proposition has real “gifting” credentials for significant dates at a competitive price point.

Frasquira wines – Provenance and Heritage

Volumes are small, but the wines are disproportionately influential in how Madeira is viewed. They are super premium aspirational wines. Loved by the status conscious and collectors. A comparison would be with Macallan Single Malt Whisky or Springbank Single Malt Whisky. Both ae hugely sort out by connoisseurs and collectors, with demand far outstripping supply and commanding very high prices.

Boal is the standout Frasqueira wine, followed by Verdelho, then Sercial and lastly Malvasia in volumes commercialised. This may reflect stock availability over the period reported and analysed.

The Premiumisation trajectory

Prestige‑weighted premiumisation has risen faster than raw premium volumes, this is because the growth is concentrated in higher‑weight categories, the Canteiro Prestige Index developed shows this clearly:

• 2015: 0.24
• 2023: 0.29

This represents a 20% increase in prestige‑weighted premium share over the period.

Method‑based premiumisation (Canteiro vs Estufagem)

Canteiro is inherently premium, so its share is a proxy for quality shift, the Canteiro Index shows:

• 2015: 8.1%
• 2023: 9.7%

But the prestige‑weighted Canteiro share rises from:

• 2015: 23.8%
• 2023: 29.1%

Canteiro production, historically a small share of total volume has grown. This shift is structurally significant: Canteiro wines require more time, capital, and cask resources, signalling a deliberate move toward premiumisation.

This means in practice Madeira is premiumising steadily, not explosively, the trend is real but measured: The premiumisation is driven by the noble varieties: Sercial, Verdelho, Boal and Malvasia (lagging) but all showing solid upward momentum in the very important 10 years old category, with a noticeable trend towards drier wines.

Looking forward, Colheita bottlings are becoming an important category and Tinta Negra bottlings are now playing a stronger role in this. The flip side is that 15 years old wines and 20 years old wines are becoming of less importance. Volumes of 30, 40 and 50 years old wines are very small and the statistics indicate volatility. Frasqueira remains tiny in volume terms but disproportionately important to the Madeira wine brand and provenance.

Tinta Negra remains largely non‑premium, which actually amplifies the premiumisation signal in the core 4 noble grapes. This will change over time and I hope and expect to see Tinta Negra wines evolve as a strong premium category. Finding some differentiation in provenance and narrative will be key to this. Hopefully Tinta Negra wines do not just eat into Malvasia and Boal volumes.

Prestige Index by Variety

Sercial
Total Volume: Mid high
Prestige Volume: Very high
Prestige Index: 3.9

Verdelho
Total Volume: Mid high
Prestige Volume: Very high
Prestige Index: 3.7

Boal
Total Volume: High
Prestige Volume: High
Prestige Index: 3.5

Malvasia
Total Volume: Very high
Prestige Volume: Very high
Prestige Index: 3.8

Terrantez
Total Volume: Low volume
Prestige Volume: Extremely high weight
Prestige Index: 6.0

Bastardo
Total Volume: Tiny volume
Prestige Volume: High weight
Prestige Index: 4.5

 Interpretation: What this means

The noble quartet (Sercial, Verdelho, Boal, Malvasia) all score between 3.5 and 3.9 on the index, which is exactly where traditional Madeira production should be with strong 10 years old wines, regular Colheita releases and occasional Frasqueira bottlings. This is the “classic premium Madeira” profile.

Terrantez (6.0) is the prestige superstar Even though volumes are tiny, the age profile is extraordinary. This is a variety that is being rediscovered after near extinction. Volumes at 20 years are steadyish. Frasqueira volumes indicate strong interest amongst collectors or connoisseurs.

Bastardo (4.5) volumes are miniscule, but a recovery from near extinction is happening, but grape supply is difficult. Frasqueira sales are a steady trickle.

Listrao is in a difficult place with no commercialised volumes from after 2017 being recorded. Malvasia Candida looks fragile but a gentle recovery could happen, though volumes will always remain very very small. Moscatel Graudo exists principally as a Frasqueira at present, but never say never with these historic grapes.

In summary

Madeira’s production landscape has undergone a decisive transformation over the past decade. Total volumes have remained broadly stable, but the composition of those volumes has shifted dramatically toward higher‑prestige categories. The Prestige Index — a weighted measure combining annual volumes with the traditional hierarchy of Madeira ageing styles — reveals a clear long‑term trend: Canteiro wines, especially 10‑year, Colheita, and Frasqueira categories, have become the core drivers of Madeira’s premium identity.

Despite the volatility caused by the 2020 pandemic shock, the prestige segment has not only recovered but expanded, with 2023–2024 showing the strongest prestige performance in the dataset to date.

[1] IVES International Viticulture and Enology Society: OIV2025-737.pdf